InOutSignal: InOutSignals

The following long-term market signals and trend indicators are being monitored on a monthly basis.
The blog will publish new signals as they become available.

InOutSignal 1: two consecutive monthly candles above/below the 12-month SMA trigger the InOutSignal

Tom's favorite, simple but effective market timing technique triggers InOutSignals when the market moves for 2 consecutive months above or below the 12 month Simple Moving Average (SMA): Stay cool and forget about all the hustle and bustle of the markets, the blue line will tell you when it's time to switch from LONG to SHORT, or vice versa.

German DAX monthly - continuing bull market through 28 February 2015
BUY SIGNAL — active since 1 April 2012 and still valid in 2015 !

S&P 500, SPY monthly - continuing bull market through 28 February 2015
BUY SIGNAL — active since 1 March 2012 and still valid in 2015 !

Signal rules for the 12-month-SMA (blue-line) trading strategy:

- Go long on 1st day of a new month when 2 monthly candles
have CLOSED above the 12-month-SMA

- Go short on 1st day of a new month when 2 monthly candles
have CLOSED below the 12-month-SMA

Had you applied the InOutSignal 12-month SMA strategy with the DAX during the last eight years, you would have come up with an nice profit during the 2003 - 2007 bull cycle, and you would have come out even during the shorter bull cycle 2009 - 2011. Applied to the S&P 5 00, you also would have reaped a large profit during the 2003 - 2007 period, and a smaller profit during 2009 - 2011. The strategy would have protected you from large losses during the bear phase 2008 - 2009, and also from the 2010 summer whipsaw in the S&P. Nonetheless, during the recent shorter bear phase 2010 - 2011, the strategy did not perform well and generated whipsaw signals for both, the DAX and the S&P 500. But, as we all know there is no holy grail in investing, and losing periods are part of the game. What counts in the end is the long-term result, i.e. the average annual return on can achieve with such a long-term strategy.

InOutSignal 2: TheETFBully.com

Ulli Niemann ... The ETF Bully guides you with his first class ETF/No Load Fund tracker to pick only the strongest ETs in every market: http://www.theetfbully.com/. Ulli's Trend Tracking Indices - TTIs, are found in his weekly ETF Newsletter (go there and click on the link for his Current ETF/Mutual Fund StatSheet)

DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs:

SIGNAL domestic TTI: BUY - since 25 October 2011

INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs:

SIGNAL international TTI: BUY - since 21 August 2012

InOutSignal 3: decisionmoose.com

Bill Dirlam's genius, low-maintenance market timing strategy for the long-term investor with the two objectives to outperform the financial market averages and to minimize risk. http://decisionmoose.com/Moosignal.html The weekly signals are available on Bil Dirlam's page free of charge! From May 7, 2000 to September 1, 2014, the DecisiolnMoose portfolio has generated a return of 1102%, while the SPY has made only 40% ... one chart says it all!

SIGNAL Long Zero T-Bonds (EDV): BUY EDV - since 22 August 2014

Moosistory from May 2000 to August 2014

InOutSignal 4: momentumstategie.de and momentumweekly.blogspot.de

Ralf Goerke updates his very useful and long-term tested International Stock-Climate Index on his blog momentumweekly.blogspot.de. Older Charts of the Index can be found on his webpage or on www.teleboerse.de (in German). His Stock-Climate Indicator and Market-Phase-Barometer currently show bright sunny weather conditions, i.e. the indicator favors bullish market moves. Additional information of the barometer based on the International Stock-Climate Index can be found in the subscription newsletter MomentumInvestor.

Goerke's International Stock-Climate Indicator (Jul 14 - Jan 15)

Goerke's Market-Phase-Barometer in the green (Stock-Climate during last 6 weeks)

If you want to get a feeling how well and how early Ralf Goerke predicted the 2011 market downturn, check out the chart below, which shows all (warning) signals he wrote about during 2011 at www.teleboerse.de, including his well-timed SELL SIGNAL in June 2011: