2011/09/30 inoutsignal.blogspot.com: another SELL signal for German DAX

The InOutSignal strategy is a slow but quite efficient technique to time the markets and to avoid too much whipsaw. The strategy triggers a Sell/Buy signal only when two subsequent monthly candles fall below/above the  12-month-SMA (blue-line), respectively (see also the InOutSignals page)

After being long in the German DAX for 2 years and one month, the index has now triggered a new SELL signal on September 30, 2011. Unlike the summer 2010 action, the current developments indicate a real bear market that should respected as such. Capital preservation now has highest priority as it is not foreseeable where the current market turmoils will take us. The severeness of the drop that the DAX experienced during the last two months does not call for an involvement on the short side, as the risk of a snap back would just too high.

As visible in the chart, had you used the InOutSignal 12-month SMA strategy for the DAX during the last 2 years, you would only have come out just even. In any case, the strategy would have protected you (as many times before) from losses and also from the 2010 summer whipsaw. A comparison of the strategy's performance with that of other MA techniques (e.g. on dshort.com which got whipsawed in summer 2010) will be presented shortly here at InOutSignal.

 Signal rules for the 12-month-SMA (blue-line) trading strategy:

                 - Go long on 1st day of a new month when 2 monthly candles
                  have CLOSED above the 12-month-SMA

                 - Go short on 1st day of a new month when 2 monthly candles 
                   have CLOSED below the 12-month-SMA