2012/02/13 decisionmoose.com signal: Buy US Small Caps, IWM - Russel 2000

On Monday February 13, 2012, a new BUY (switch) signal was published at http://decisionmoose.com/Moosignal.html :

Buy: US Small Caps (IWM, Russel 2000)
Sell: BTTRX Long-term Treasury Bonds (or ETF alternatives TLT, EDV, ZROZ)

More details about the portfolio and the transaction history at:  http://decisionmoose.com/Moosistory.html

Please note the comments of the signal author at decisionmoose.com/Moosignal.html :

"The model switches from Long-term Zero-Coupon Treasury Bonds to US Small Cap stocks (IWM) on 02/10/2011 @ $81.27. Always familiarize yourself with any investment program and the assets involved before committing to it. Read the FAQs and The Art of the Switch, below, and get a prospectus online from the fund provider.) "

2012/02/09 Goerke's International Stock-Climate Index triggers BUY SIGNAL

Ralf Goerke's monthly update on his proprietary and long-term tested Global Market-Climate Index can be found on his webpage or on www.teleboerse.de (in German). At the end of January, Goerke's International Stock-Climate Indicator had moved above the 1.0-threshold line, hinting that a BUY SIGNAL might be coming up soon. Gorke's BUY SIGNAL was then triggered on February 9, 2012, the day when it was also published in his subscription-only e-letter. On February 14, 2012 his buy signal was first made public on www.DAF.fm

SIGNAL German DAX and international markets:          BUY SIGNAL   -  since 9 February 2012

2012/02/08 www.theetfbully.com issues new BUY SIGNAL for international equity funds

On Tuesday February 7, 2012 a new BUY signal was published at www.theetfbully.com:, to be in effect as of February 8, 2012:

Buy:  International Equity Funds / ETFs

Please read ALL the important comments of the signal author, Ulli the ETF BULLY at http://www.theetfbully.com/. Specifically, Ulli notes in his post:

"In regards to trends, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI), which started to cross its long-term trend line last week, has now rallied above it by +2.83% generating a ‘Buy’ for that area.
 
Again, this only applies to “broadly diversified international equity ETFs/mutual funds.” If you are not fully invested at this point, you may consider allocating to this area as well. If you do, it is absolutely imperative that you maintain a trailing sell stop on your positions at all times, in case this new cycle runs into resistance and heads back into bear market territory."

You will find investment opportunities in Ulli's table with the Top International Funds / ETFs as of February 2, 2012 here.

2012/01/27 Goerke's International Stock-Climate Index hints BUY SIGNAL is ante portas

Ralf Goerke's monthly update on his proprietary and long-term tested International Stock-Climate Index can be found on his webpage or on www.teleboerse.de (in German). At the end of January, Goerke's International Stock-Climate Indicator has moved above the 1.0-line, hinting that a BUY SIGNAL might be coming up soon (or as Goerke puts it: buy signal ante portas). Gorke's BUY SIGNAL will be triggered when both, the indicator and its moving average cross the threshold value of 1.0. This might happen as early as in the second or third week of February 2012.

SIGNAL international markets:                         BUY SIGNAL around the corner  — ante portas

Goerke's International Stock-Climate Indicator (3-years)

2012/02/01 dshort.com triggers BUY SIGNAL for the S&P 500

Among many other signals, dshort.com monitors a simple but effective in-out-strategy based on the FIRST monthly close of the S&P 500 above or below its 12-month moving average (SMA). On January 31, 2012, the S&P 500 had its first monthly close above the 12-month SMA so that a BUY SIGNAL was triggered today on February 1, 2012. This BUY SIGNAL comes after five monthly closes below the 12-monthly SMA, since August 2011.

dshort.com's new BUY SIGNAL

2011/10/27 www.theetfbully.com issues new BUY SIGNAL for domestic equity funds (U.S.)

On Monday October 27, 2011 a new BUY signal was published at www.theetfbully.com:

Buy:  Domestic U.S. Equity Funds

Please read ALL the important comments of the signal author, Ulli the ETF BULLY at http://www.theetfbully.com/. Specifically, Ulli notes in his 10/27/2011 StatSheet:

"The domestic TTI broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities is in effect."

You will find investment opportunities in Ulli's table with the 100 Top domestic U.S. Fonds here and his BUY signal here:

2011/10/03 decisionmoose.com signal: Buy BTTRX (or TLT, EDV, ZROZ) Long-term Treasury Bonds

On Monday October 3, a new BUY signal was published at http://decisionmoose.com/Moosignal.html :

Buy: BTTRX Long-term Treasury Bonds (or ETF alternatives TLT, EDV, ZROZ)
Sell: Cash (3moT)

More details about the portfolio and the transaction history at:  http://decisionmoose.com/Moosistory.html

Please note the comments of the signal author at decisionmoose.com/Moosignal.html :

"The model switches from cash to Long-term Zero-Coupon Treasury Bonds (BTTRX) on 09/30/2011 @ $83.79. (The ETF alternatives to BTTRX, which is a mutual fund, are TLT, EDV, and ZROZ. Note that a lack of liquidity in some ETFs may exacerbate their volatility. Always familiarize yourself with any investment program and the assets involved before committing to it. Read the FAQs and The Art of the Switch, below.)"

2011/09/30 inoutsignal.blogspot.com: another SELL signal for German DAX

The InOutSignal strategy is a slow but quite efficient technique to time the markets and to avoid too much whipsaw. The strategy triggers a Sell/Buy signal only when two subsequent monthly candles fall below/above the  12-month-SMA (blue-line), respectively (see also the InOutSignals page)

After being long in the German DAX for 2 years and one month, the index has now triggered a new SELL signal on September 30, 2011. Unlike the summer 2010 action, the current developments indicate a real bear market that should respected as such. Capital preservation now has highest priority as it is not foreseeable where the current market turmoils will take us. The severeness of the drop that the DAX experienced during the last two months does not call for an involvement on the short side, as the risk of a snap back would just too high.

As visible in the chart, had you used the InOutSignal 12-month SMA strategy for the DAX during the last 2 years, you would only have come out just even. In any case, the strategy would have protected you (as many times before) from losses and also from the 2010 summer whipsaw. A comparison of the strategy's performance with that of other MA techniques (e.g. on dshort.com which got whipsawed in summer 2010) will be presented shortly here at InOutSignal.

 Signal rules for the 12-month-SMA (blue-line) trading strategy:

                 - Go long on 1st day of a new month when 2 monthly candles
                  have CLOSED above the 12-month-SMA

                 - Go short on 1st day of a new month when 2 monthly candles 
                   have CLOSED below the 12-month-SMA

2011/09/26 decisionmoose.com signal: sell Gold GLD and switch to Cash (3moT)

On Monday September 26, a new signal was published at http://decisionmoose.com/Moosignal.html :

Sell:  Gold GLD

Buy: Cash (3moT)

More details about the portfolio and the transaction history at:  http://decisionmoose.com/Moosistory.html

An evaluation of decisionmoose's GDL investement during the period Monday, May 2 - Friday, September 23, 2011 will follow shortly here at InOutSignal. Also check the evaluation of decicionmoose's last investment in the Russel 2000 IWM here. 

2011/09/07 kimblechartingsolutions.com: harvest "safe havens" Gold GLD, Swiss Franc FXF, and 20 Year Treasury Bonds TLT

Chris Kimble (blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com) uses a nice chart showing that GOLD GLD, the SWISS FRANC FXF and the 20 Year Treasury Bonds TLT and have found long-term key resistance, all at the same time. Check out Chris' blog here:

From Chris' analysis it is clear that owning these "safe havens" plays at the wrong time - NOW - bears as much risk as any other type of investment. Chris concludes: "I remain of the opinion that conservative investors should harvest up against resistance and aggressive investors should "attempt to score on defense" at resistance with an upside stop if resistance doesn't hold."

2011/08/31 dshort.com - S&P 500 slips below 12-month SMA and triggers SELL SIGNAL

One of the slower signals monitored here at InOutSignal is that by dshort.com based on the 12-month moving average (SMA). On August 31, 2011, the S&P 500 had its first monthly close since June 2010 below the 12-month SMA. According to the rules of the dshort.com strategy, one monthly close below the SMA is sufficient to trigger a SELL SIGNAL. This is in contrast to the InOutSignal strategy that requires TWO monthly closes below the SMA. Therefore, the earliest possible sell signal of the InOutSignal strategy would occur at the end of September 2011, if the bear market continues.

2011/08/08 www.thebully.com - domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI) slides into bear market territory

Whereas Ulli Niemann's international Trend Tracking Index (i-TTI) has been in bearish territory for a while (since 16 June 2011), his domestic TTI took a bit longer and triggered its SELL SIGNAL just yesterday 8 August 2011. In his blog www.theETFBully.com Ulli Niemann writes:

"This means, if you track major trends in the market place, we have now officially entered bear market territory, and no equity ETFs/funds should be held. If you followed my recommended sell stop discipline, you sold your equity ETFs/funds some time ago, as their trailing sell stops got triggered, and this now merely is a confirmation of the recent downward trend."