2018-11-14 SPX - S&P 500 at important support zone - top or flop?

After sell-off and short recovery rally, the S&P 500 is now testing two important symmetry support zones in the range 2690 - 2720. If they hold, bulls might be back for a happy Christmas Rally.

2018-10-29 SPX - S&P 500 stopped precisely at 2620 support zone

2018-08-09 SPX - S&P 500 sensing resistance close the the all-time-high 2872.87

2017-08-30 DAX (Germany) and CAC 40 (France) with failed breakouts (from KimbleChartingSolutions.com)

Here's an interesting chart from KimbleChartingSolutions.com. He thinks that the current weakness in the European markets could have a Domino effect on the markets in the US. I agree, at the momentary situation of the US Markets this could be the straw to tip the scale ...

 

2017-08-24 SPX - S&P 500 correction squeezed into falling triangle

2017-08-15 SPX - S&P 500 at decision point 2465

2017-07-26 SPX - S&P 500 at resistance cluster

2014/10/31 Trading up the S&P500 rally with Fibonacci-Cluster support (SPX SPY ES)

S&P 500 Fibonacci Clusters with repeated Symmetry Support

Nice rally S&P!!! ... great stuff but how to trade this market efficiently and how to jump on the train, when it's already in full speed? How about using Fibonacci-support-clusters for entry and for controlling risk? The chart shows a double bottom being formed on Oct 16, followed by a break of symmetry on Oct 20 (the symmetry stemming from a Oct 8-9 swing). This was the first indication that the trend had changed. From now on, the S&P followed a simple rhythm pattern, repeating very similar down-swings over and over again. Until today, there were six similar swings that could have been used to enter the market long and to define narrow stop-levels slightly underneath the Fibonacci support clusters (i.e, red closely staggered lines). With very narrow stops you would have been stopped out at points 3 and 6, but by giving the trade a bit more room to breath (and/or by working with options) you could have traded the full rally up with this technique. BTW, then next symmetry support Fib-Cluster is right there from 1990 - 2000, possibly a support zone for the next swing up? 

Schicke Rally S&P!!! ... super Ding, aber wie tradet man das effektiv und wie spring ich drauf auf den fahrenden Zug, wenn der schon so richtig in Schwung is? Der obige Chart zeigt uns, wie ein doppelter Boden am 16. Okt. ausgeformt wurde, gefolgt von einem Bruch der Symmetrie am 20. Okt. (die Symmetrie stammt von einem Swing am 8-9. Okt.). Dieser Bruch gab uns ein erstes Signal, dass der Trend gebrochen war. Von dann an folgte der S&P einem einfachen Rhythmus und wiederholte mehrere Male sehr ähnliche, kurze Abschwünge. Bis heute hatten wir sechs solcher Abschwünge, die jeweils gut für den Einstieg in den Markt benützt hätten werden können und die auch gut-definierte Stopp-Niveaus unter den Fibonacci-Clusters zur Verfügung stellten (siehe rote, eng zusammenliegende Linien). Mit sehr engen Stopps wäre man wohl bei den Punkten 3 und 6 ausgestoppt worden, aber mit ein bisschen mehr "Luft" in den Trades (und/oder mit Optionen als Handelswerkzeug), hätte man mit dieser Technik einen Grossteil der Rally hochtraden können. Übrigens, der nächste Symmetrie Fibo-Cluster bei 1990 - 2000 ist auch schon eingezeichnet und könnte eine mögliche Unterstützungszone für den nächsten Schwung nach oben anbieten? 

2014/10/02 S&P500 Fibonacci symmetry support cluster (SPX SPY ES)

S&P 500 Fibonacci Cluster & Symmetry Support

While market action was fierce, the S&P 500 must first prove whether it really means it. At the moment, we are still in a perfectly fine correction that has not exceeded similar down moves we've observed in the recent past. The Fibonacci Cluster in the chart needs to hold should this be another "normal" swing. Note however that the Squeeze has fired south and hints that more days with selling pressure might be ahead of us.

2014/05/12 SPX Calendar - new monthly income trade

New income trade Wednesday May 12, 2014 (opened two hours before the close): 

Bought a SPX JUL/JUN14 1900 monthly Calendar Spread with 38/66 days to go until expiration 

BOT +1 CALENDAR SPX 100 JUL 14/JUN 14 1900 CALL @9.55 CBOE

The trade idea:
The decison for the SPX at 1900 is either UP or DOWN. Volatility is extremely low at the moment at about 12% and SPX IV-percentile is in the lowest 10%. For me a good opportunity to open the first "tent" of a double Calendar, at a value that might see some back and forth trading (up to 1920, down to 1850, see chart)

However, should Ms. Market decide to make a stronger move - either up- or downwards - then a second Calendar tent will be placed according to market action either above or below, receptively. The current trade therefore carries only 1/2 of the total capital I am willing to risk in this trade. Lets Ms. Market play her game, we are prepared with a plan for all three directions. 

Updates for this and other trades can be found at http://inoutsignal.blogspot.de/p/inoutoptions2.html

2014/01/27 Nice example of a 30-min squeeze trigger in the S&P 500 (ES, SPY, SPX, RUT, IWM)

S&P 500

Just as forecasted in the blog below of January 21, a larger move occurred in the S&P 500 (and most other indexes) after the tipple-squeeze had built up "over pressure" that need to be released. In the earlier blog it was also mentioned that the 30-min squeeze could be used as a trigger in order to decide, in which direction the S&P 500 would fire (long or short). This trigger decision has worked out beautifully in this case and is therefore displayed here as a generic example. 

In the figure above the cursor resides on the Jan 23 candle in the daily chart. The program automatically highlights the time period of Jan 23 in the 4-h and 30-min charts. While the squeezes of all three charts fired short on Jan 23, the 30-min squeeze was the first one to do so. In order to catch the big move, one would use the firing 30-min squeeze as the trigger, and then carefully observe if the other squeezes follow suit in the same direction. The stop loss would be placed fairly tightly in the 30-min chart, preferably above a Fibonacci Cluster or some other resistance level.  

Once triggered, the release of the over pressure typically takes place during 6-8 bars before the squeeze momentum dies down. This also applies to the S&P 500 daily chart, which today is only three days (=bars) into the momentum release triggered on Jan 23. So I expect more movement downwards ...

2014/01/21 S&P 500 and Russel 2000 consolidating with daily-squeeze and 4hour-squeeze patterns - expect a larger move ! (ES, SPY, SPX, RUT, IWM)

 S&P 500

Russel 2000

Two important indices, the S&P 500 and the Russel 2000 are consolidating with daily- and 4-hour squeeze patterns (the Russel even features a 30-min squeeze, too). When squeezed too hard, these "babies" like to escape from their cages, and they tend to do this at an accelerated pace that might last for a few days. While the direction of this move is still unclear, the momentum indicators on the 4-hour charts hint for higher levels of those indices. The 30-min squeeze of the Russel 2000 could be used as a trigger, when it fires long or short. 

2014/01/14 ES (SPY, SPX) at strong Fibonacci Cluster Support - will it hold?

After yesterday's significant sell-off, the E-mini S&P 500 Futures formed a large red candle that has reached an important Fibonacci support cluster. Today's price action will show if this support level can hold. If so, the rally might continue with upside targets in the 1852 - 1857 range. 

2013/11/04 DAX 1h-Squeeze breakout - the impulsive move has started

 

After getting squeezed twice in a short time, the DAX has finally blown the pressure valve an moved impulsively to the downside this morning. And, there might be much more downside potential! Also check out other indices like FTSE 100 and S&P 500, the impulsive moves are similar and the downside potential too. 

 

See also my earlier post of Nov 1, 2013

 

2013/10/22 SPX SPY SP500 Fibonacci Cluster upside resistance and targets

 

Fibonacci cluster target 1: 1753-1756
Fibonacci cluster target 2: 1782-1786

2012/11/13 blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com: Dual test of support for the S&P 500 (SPX, SPY)

In his blog, Chris Kimble identifies a current long-term rising wedge pattern in the S&P 500, which resembles the rising wedges that build up during the periods 1998-2000 and 2006-2007, before large market shifts to the downside occurred. The current wedge is also nearing long-term resistance at 1550 that has held since 2000. In conclusion, this is a time when "risk off" is definitively the safer play!

Chris Kimble blogs: "An important "Dual Test of support" is at hand right now for the 500 index. Long investors best hope it holds, because the support line off the 2009 low is very important!  FYI- Support is Support until broken! Twice over the past 12 years, the 500 index broke support lines of these rising wedges at (1) in the chart below and prices fell off quiet a bit."

 Click here for Chris Kimble's full blog article

2012/08/27 decisionmoose.com: BUY US Large Caps (SPY) - SELL Long-term Treasury Bonds (BTTRX, TLT)

For Monday August 27, 2012, a new SWITCH SIGNAL (SELL and BUY new) was published as of Friday's close at http://decisionmoose.com/Moosignal.html :

Sell: BTTRX Long-term Treasury Bonds (or ETF alternatives TLT, EDV, ZROZ)
Buy: US Large Cap Stocks (SPY, SPX)

More details about the portfolio and the transaction history at:  http://decisionmoose.com/Moosistory.html

Please note the comments of the signal author at decisionmoose.com/Moosignal.html :

"The model switches from to US Zero-Coupon Long Treasury bonds (BTTRX) to US Large Cap stocks (SPY) on 08/10/2012 @ $140.84. Always familiarize yourself with any investment program and the assets involved before committing to it. Read the FAQs and The Art of the Switch, below, and get a prospectus online from the fund provider.)"

2012/06/04 InOutSignal SELL SIGNALS - who is first?

InOutSignals: Please take note of these four important longterm SELL Signals that have been issued since 7 May 2012
InOutSignal	Date	Signal Source	Signal	Markets
	12/06/04	momentumstrategie.de	Sell	DAX, S&P 500, SPY World Markets
	12/06/01	kimblechartingsolutions.com	Sell	S&P 500, Broad Markets, World Markets
	12/05/17	theetfbully.com	Sell	International Funds and ETFs
	12/05/07	decisionmoose.com	Sell	S&P 500, SPY

The chart below gives you an idea how these four SELL SIGNALS would have performed for an  S&P 500 investor.
Please use the InOutDates page to see a full list of BUY and SELL signals on InOutSignal.

2012/06/03 Why InOutSignals for S&P500, DOW and DAX turned red on June 1, 2012

This video will give you a quick update on a few important market signals followed here on
InOutSignal.com and it will deliver one clear message:
Watch out, the risk is high at the moment that markets will drop sharply !

2012/05/14 InOutSignal midterm Elliott wave chart for the S&P 500 (SPX, SPY)

Find an updated midterm Elliott wave chart and outlook for the S&P 500 (SPX, SPY) on InOutElliott