2015/03/05 GILD breaking out with Squeeze power - Broken Wing Butterfly Setup

GILD breaking out with Squeeze power in the back - Trade Setup Broken Wing Butterfly

 

GILD is preparing a breakout from the triangle formation, with 1h and 4h Squeezes in the back for additional push power . GILD is part of the heath care sector XLF, which performs well at the moment. Since I like to trade a balanced risk / reward ratio, I am preparing a Apr15 Broken Wing Butterfly ago (BUY +1 BUTTERFLY GILD 100 April 15 100/110/115 CALL @ 3.77 LMT ) for the target 110 (127% Fibo extension ). The risk for one contract is then limited to $ 377 + commissions, with a max. potential of $ 600 at 110. Risk his is only downwards, upward will result in profits.

GILD bereitet einen Breakout aus der Dreiecksformation vor, mit 1h und 4h Squeezes für zusätzliche Push-Power. GILD gehört zum Heath Care Sektor XLF, der zur Zeit sehr stark ist. Da ich gerne ein ausgeglichenes Chance/Risiko-Verhältnis trade, bereite ich einen Apr15 Broken Wing Butterfly vor (BUY +1 BUTTERFLY GILD 100 APR 15 100/110/115 CALL @3.77 LMT) mit dem Kursziel 110 (127 Fibo-Extension). Das Risiko für einen Kontrakt ist dann auf $377 + Commies limitiert, mit einem max. Potential von $600 bei 110. Risiko gibts nur nach unten, nach oben wird in jedem Fall Gewinn geschrieben.

2015/02/17 USDJPY Fibonacci-Cluster support in 1h-Chart (with stop & targets)

USDJPY Fibonacci-Cluster support in 1h-Chart

Fibonacci Cluster support at 61% retracement in 1h-Chart and Squeeze Indicator fired long:

- Stop ST=118.05

- Target levels TG1=119.5 and TG2=121

 

2014/10/02 S&P500 Fibonacci symmetry support cluster (SPX SPY ES)

S&P 500 Fibonacci Cluster & Symmetry Support

While market action was fierce, the S&P 500 must first prove whether it really means it. At the moment, we are still in a perfectly fine correction that has not exceeded similar down moves we've observed in the recent past. The Fibonacci Cluster in the chart needs to hold should this be another "normal" swing. Note however that the Squeeze has fired south and hints that more days with selling pressure might be ahead of us.

2014/08/29 UNG - Natural Gas Midterm Setup with Fibonacci Targets & Squeeze Support

UNG setup

Long Trade Setup for UNG (Natural Gas ETF) with Fibonacci Support/Resistance Clusters and midterm targets from the daily Chart:

- solid Fibonacci support cluster at 21

- seasonally expecting move up until the end of the year

- geo-political situation might help 

- the daily Squeeze just fired long yesterday, so we expect an average of 8-10 bars of daily push power

- breakout to a new swing high yesterday indicates that a new long trend could be established
- Fibonacci-target 1: 23
- Fibonacci-target 2 (and hurdle on the way up): 23.4-23.7

My Trade Strategy is to sell an at-the-money Put Credit Spread :  Sell GTC Jan15 +21/-23 ATM PCS at $1.10 or better (currently $1.13).

The idea is to have an "edge" from the analysis and to implement the trade with a neutral 1:1 risk/reward, after having paid commissions. If the spread is sold at $1.10, the max risk will be $0.90 + commissions.

If UNG expires in January above $23 you'll make +100% profit, if it expires below $21 your take the full loss of -100% (this works like a risk-balanced binary option, that's why I call it 100binOpts). In effect, you need only a $1 move up to make full profit on the trade. If you end up somewhere in between the $21-23 range you'll experience a partial profit or loss. Of course, partial profits/losses can also be taken at any time earlier than Jan 15.

2014/08/26 TSLA Squeeze Setup with Fibonacci Targets

TSLA setup

Long Trade Setup with Fibonacci Support/Resistance Clusters and midterm and longterm targets from the daily and weekly Charts:

- the weekly Squeeze has already fired long and a few more bars of push momentum in reserve
- the 4 hour Squeeze is getting ready fire long (with overnight data it already fired long)
- Fibonacci-support-cluster at 253-250
- Fibonacci-targets on the daily chart: 271.4 and 276.9
- Fibonacci-targets on the weekly chart: 288.9 and 319.3

2014/08/09 FSLR Squeeze Setup with Fibonacci Clusters

FSLR setup

Long Trade Setup with Fibonacci Support/Resistance Clusters and Squeeze push engine:

- above all EMAs 21/50/200 (supercalifragilistic setup)
- great push up from EMA 200 after earnings on good volume
- daily squeeze triggered long (2 bars) - weekly squeeze in place
- Fibonacci-support-cluster 60-55
- Fibonacci-target 80
- Fibonacci-hurdle 70

The first move up has taken FSLR up to the Fib-hurdle around 70. A pullback in the 65 zone would be nice and for me a preferred entry zone. If FSLR manages to get through the 70 zone, the move has a high probability to get to 80.

My Trade Strategy is to sell an at-the-money Put Credit Spread (my GTC limit order being already in the market):  Sell Sep14 62.5/67.5 ATM PCS at $2.55 GTC (currently $2.03)

=> if the FSLR expires above $67.5 you make +100% profit, if it expires below $62.5 your take the full loss of -100% (works like a binary option); if you end up in between the $62.5 - $67.5 zone you experience partial profit/loss

Should FSLR pull back to 65 my spread would be filled automatically at $2.55, which is a tiny bit more than 1/2 the spread (the extra 5 cents is to cover commissions). The basic idea is to risk $2.5 to make $2.5.  You will also make full profit if the stock moves up only slightly, no huge rally move needed :) 

Note: This is just a trading example for educational purpose only and should not be taken as trading advice. Trading Options carries substantial risk. An ATM credit spread generally risks the full width of the spread minus the credit received. This means that you need to employ your own risk and money management strategies. 

2014/05/23 BIDU & NDX setup update: daily squeeze fired long while weekly squeeze is building thrust power

Short update for the NDX and the BIDU weekly-daily squeeze setup of May 19, 2014:

Driven by the Nasdaq breakout on Friday, the daily squeezes of both, BIDU and the NDX have fired long. In this move, BIDU has already reached a first target, the 127.2% Fib-extension at $167.05, which now adds to the overhead resistance of the April 25 swing high at $167.36. A small retracement on Tuesday possibly with an additional squeeze in the 30 min chart would be nice to find a good entry point for the long side.

What makes this setup so attractive is that there is lots of "squeeze-fuel" left in the trade, with a 7-9 bars expected move off the daily chart, and a weekly squeeze that hasn't even fired yet. A good time to turn on the squeeze thruster ...

BIDU

NDX