2015/02/04 Crude in bull mode, waiting for pullback to Fibonacci-Cluster support @50 (CL, USO)

Crude (CL, USO) Fibonacci-Clusters with possible pullback to 50/48

Fibonacci-Cluster Analysis for Crude (CL, USO) :
On the daily chart, most symmetries were broken by the recent powerful rise of Crude - that's a bullish sign! Now we are at a resistance cluster 53-57.6, which would call for a pullback into the support areas 50 and 48 (on the 30min chart ). These would be the areas for a re-entry in the long direction. A turn-around at 50 would provide a 127% Fibo target at 55. An added extra: the daily chart shows a 4-dot squeeze that seems to  fire long. This might give the movement a nice boost up :)

My personal ideas for possible trade implementation with options
(provided, of course , we get the pullback to 50 and a resumption of the trend !) :

• 50/55 call debit spread ( with target = 55)
• At- the-money 49/51 put credit spread ( also called 100BinOpts , 1 risk / make 1 )
• Delta70 options (aggressive, but should the squeeze fire, you'll get the highest profit potential)

Fibonacci-Cluster Analyse für Crude (CL, USO):
Im Tageschart wurden durch den kürzlichen flotten Anstieg die meisten Symmetrien nach oben gebrochen - das ist ein bullisches Zeichen! Jetzt befinden wir uns an einem Widerstands-Cluster 53-57.6, der einen Pullback bis zu den Unterstützungsbereichen bei 50 bzw. 48 möglich macht (30min Chart). Dort bietet sich dann der Wiedereinstieg in die Long-Richtung an. Bei einem Dreher um 50 wäre das 127% Fibo-Ziel dann um die 55. Noch ein Extra: der Tageschart weißt einen 4-Punkt Squeeze auf, der nach oben zu feuern scheint.  Hierdurch könnte es einen schönen Schub nach oben  geben.

Meine persönlichen Ideen zur möglichen Umsetzung mit Optionen
(vorausgesetzt natürlich, wir bekommen den Pullback zu 50 und eine Wiederaufnahme des Trends!):

• 50/55 Call-Debit Spread (mit Target = 55)
• At-the-money 49/51 Put-Credit Spread (auch 100BinOpts genannt, Risiko 1/Potential 1)
• Delta70 Optionen (aggressiv, aber wenn der Squeeze feuert, dann höchstes Gewinnpotential)

2014/08/29 UNG - Natural Gas Midterm Setup with Fibonacci Targets & Squeeze Support

UNG setup

Long Trade Setup for UNG (Natural Gas ETF) with Fibonacci Support/Resistance Clusters and midterm targets from the daily Chart:

- solid Fibonacci support cluster at 21

- seasonally expecting move up until the end of the year

- geo-political situation might help 

- the daily Squeeze just fired long yesterday, so we expect an average of 8-10 bars of daily push power

- breakout to a new swing high yesterday indicates that a new long trend could be established
- Fibonacci-target 1: 23
- Fibonacci-target 2 (and hurdle on the way up): 23.4-23.7

My Trade Strategy is to sell an at-the-money Put Credit Spread :  Sell GTC Jan15 +21/-23 ATM PCS at $1.10 or better (currently $1.13).

The idea is to have an "edge" from the analysis and to implement the trade with a neutral 1:1 risk/reward, after having paid commissions. If the spread is sold at $1.10, the max risk will be $0.90 + commissions.

If UNG expires in January above $23 you'll make +100% profit, if it expires below $21 your take the full loss of -100% (this works like a risk-balanced binary option, that's why I call it 100binOpts). In effect, you need only a $1 move up to make full profit on the trade. If you end up somewhere in between the $21-23 range you'll experience a partial profit or loss. Of course, partial profits/losses can also be taken at any time earlier than Jan 15.