2014/07/02 DAX daily and 30min Squeezes with Fibonacci targets

DAX - FDAX

DAX daily/30 min Squeezes and upside Fibonacci Cluster resistance:

The DAX is building up Squeeze push power in the daily and 30 min charts. Should the Squeezes fire long, would the next Fibonacci Cluster targets be at 10134 and 10330.

2013/11/07 DAX Double-Whammy UPDATE: Squeeze fired long on interest rate news

 UPDATE: DAX and its squeeze release double-whammy :) 

(compare with post this morning)

2013/11/07 DAX Double-Whammy Squeeze: 4h and 1h power waiting for today's news releases

 

The DAX and many other indices are setting up for a double-whammy: pressure is building before the news releases today, and the indices are squeezed into narrow ranges. The DAX has a Squeeze in the 1h and the 4h chart, just waiting to release the pressure in one or the other direction. Two-sided strategies that speculate on larger movements are favored in this situation. 

2013/11/04 DAX 1h-Squeeze breakout - the impulsive move has started

 

After getting squeezed twice in a short time, the DAX has finally blown the pressure valve an moved impulsively to the downside this morning. And, there might be much more downside potential! Also check out other indices like FTSE 100 and S&P 500, the impulsive moves are similar and the downside potential too. 

 

See also my earlier post of Nov 1, 2013

 

2013/11/01 DAX 1h-Squeeze forming - be prepared for impulsive move

 

The DAX has entered into a 1h-Squeeze (the Bollinger Bands entering into the Keltner Channel). Frequently, during a squeeze pressure is building up that needs to be released in an impulsive move, once the squeeze fires to one or the other side. The TRIX and the MACD indicate decreasing momentum, so the squeeze firing to the downside would be the more likely scenario. 

 

Option traders like squeezes, because they mean fast and furious moves - great for long delta 70 options plays. So be prepared ... :) 

 

2013/10/30 DAX 15 min - support and resistance Fibonacci Clusters for the day

2013/8/20 DAX weekly chart & setup with potential entry / targets for weekly option trade

DAX weekly chart and potential weekly option trade setup: 

After a dynamic move downwards to the 100% extension level 8250 on Tuesday morning, a corrective retracement back to 8330 seems likely, with a test of this level and the upper channel limit. This could develop into a nice entry point, for a move down from 8330 to 8210 (127% Fibo-extension) or even lower to 8155 (162% Fibo-extension) or the island-gap from 8130 to 8085. Take note that there will be important U.S. news on Wednesday and Thursday that will likely move the markets.

Have a  successful trading week, Tom

2013/8/12 DAX weekly options trade is on with a wDAX 8450 PUT

NEW DAX TRADE:

S&P 500, DOW and FTSE 100 all show bearish tendencies. The DAX is the most bullish of all and had the most powerful intraday reversal, which also gives it the most downside potential. The weekly options trade with a long wDAX 8450 PUT and a chart with the setup can be found in the table in the InOutOptions tab.

2013/8/12 DAX weekly chart & trade idea with potential entry / targets with weekly options

 

DAX weekly chart and potential short trade setup: 

After a dynamic move downwards on Monday morning, a corrective retracement back to
8300 seems likely, with a test of this level and of the trendline from the lower side. There 

a good entry point could develop, for a move down to 8170 (100% Fibo-extension) or 

even lower to the island-gap from 8130 to 8085.

Have a  successful trading week, Tom

2013/7/1 REVIEW: DAX weekly options trade of last week (June 24 - 28, 2013)

Review: DAX weekly options trade of last week (June 24 - 28, 2013)

 

: 

Monday, June 24: Entry - bought  weekly DAX 7600 ITM Call @ 163

(using IGMarket weekly options, DAX@7700,  TimeValue = BreakEven = 63) 

Max Risk of Trade: 163      

 

Friday, June 28: Exit - sold 3/5 @368 and later 2/5 @325, Average Sell Price = 220 +30 = 350

Total Profit: 350 - 163 = 187

Risk/Reward: 163 / 187  = 0.87 

 

This week's DAX trade (July 1 -  5, 2013): today on Monday July 1, the DAX has moved erratically all morning and there were no indications for a preferred direction for this week's trade. I will stay on the sideline and when a better situation develops - I will let you know!

 

Please feel free to contact me if you want to learn more about risk-defined option trades.  If you are of the opinion that trading with stop-losses is not quite the smartest approach, then you might be happy to learn some option-tricks that will keep you out of trouble, while increasing your profitability. 

Have a  successful trading week, Tom

2013/6/27 UPDATE: DAX weekly chart & weekly options trade - Target2 reached

 

DAX weekly options trade: 

Thursday, June 27: Target 2 - TG2@8000 has been reached - nice profits this week :)

The US Markets are still pressing higher, so there's more upside potential. 

Follow it closely (with a trailing stop) or take some risk off the table (e.g. 2nd partial profit of 3)

2013/6/26 UPDATE: DAX weekly chart & weekly options trade - Target1 reached

DAX weekly options trade: 

Wednesday, June 24: Target 1 - TG1@7880 has been reached

This is a good level to take some risk off the table and reap partial profits (1/2 or 1/3 of the trade size)

 

 

2013/6/24 DAX weekly chart & weekly options trade idea with potential entry / targets

DAX weekly options trade idea: 

Monday, June 24: Entry - bought  a weekly DAX 7600 ITM Call @ 163

(using IGMarket weekly options, DAX@7700,  TimeValue = BreakEven = 63) 

Max Risk of Trade: 163             

Profit Potential(@TG2): 300-63 = 237   

Risk/Reward: risk 100 / make 145 (with directional bias)

Risk Control: maximum risk = premium paid = 163 

(NO stop loss required - weekly options will keep you in the game all week!) 

Next possible entry point @7750 

Contact me if you want to learn more about such risk-defined option trades

that will keep you from being stopped out by erratic market moves.

Have a  successful trading week, Tom

2013/6/10 DAX weekly - last week's forcasts and weekly option trade in review

  

A quick review on what happened with the DAX and my weekly option trade idea of last week:

Monday, June 3: Entry - bought  a weekly DAX 8400 PUT@100 (DAX@8350, IGMarket weeklies) 

Friday, June 7: Exit - sold the weekly DAX 8400 PUT@275 at Target2 (DAX@8075)

Risk of trade: 100              Profit: 275-100 = 175    

Type of trade: risk 100/lose 100 with directional bias

Risk control: maximum risk = premium paid = 100 (NO stop loss required - you stay in the game!)

2013/6/3 DAX weekly chart with potential entry and target points

3 June 2013:  DAX weekly chart with potential entry and target points TG1/TG2 for the week

2012/06/04 mid-term Elliott Analysis of the German DAX

Mid-term:   after the break of the purple Elliott 5-Wave defense line on June 1, 2012 at 6200, the way is now open for further moves downwards, possibly following a new 5-Wave pattern. In this pattern, Wave 3 could initially run down to about 5770 (162.8% extension) and then retrace back to about 6200 in Wave 4 (38.2% retracement)  

Long-term:  if this 5-wave pattern develops, Wave 5 could reach down as far as 5600 or even approach the September 2011 low at around 5000 

2012/04/18 InOutSignal midterm Elliott wave chart for the German DAX

Find an updated midterm Elliott wave chart and outlook for the German DAX on InOutElliott

2011/09/30 inoutsignal.blogspot.com: another SELL signal for German DAX

The InOutSignal strategy is a slow but quite efficient technique to time the markets and to avoid too much whipsaw. The strategy triggers a Sell/Buy signal only when two subsequent monthly candles fall below/above the  12-month-SMA (blue-line), respectively (see also the InOutSignals page)

After being long in the German DAX for 2 years and one month, the index has now triggered a new SELL signal on September 30, 2011. Unlike the summer 2010 action, the current developments indicate a real bear market that should respected as such. Capital preservation now has highest priority as it is not foreseeable where the current market turmoils will take us. The severeness of the drop that the DAX experienced during the last two months does not call for an involvement on the short side, as the risk of a snap back would just too high.

As visible in the chart, had you used the InOutSignal 12-month SMA strategy for the DAX during the last 2 years, you would only have come out just even. In any case, the strategy would have protected you (as many times before) from losses and also from the 2010 summer whipsaw. A comparison of the strategy's performance with that of other MA techniques (e.g. on dshort.com which got whipsawed in summer 2010) will be presented shortly here at InOutSignal.

 Signal rules for the 12-month-SMA (blue-line) trading strategy:

                 - Go long on 1st day of a new month when 2 monthly candles
                  have CLOSED above the 12-month-SMA

                 - Go short on 1st day of a new month when 2 monthly candles 
                   have CLOSED below the 12-month-SMA