2011/10/27 www.theetfbully.com issues new BUY SIGNAL for domestic equity funds (U.S.)

On Monday October 27, 2011 a new BUY signal was published at www.theetfbully.com:

Buy:  Domestic U.S. Equity Funds

Please read ALL the important comments of the signal author, Ulli the ETF BULLY at http://www.theetfbully.com/. Specifically, Ulli notes in his 10/27/2011 StatSheet:

"The domestic TTI broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities is in effect."

You will find investment opportunities in Ulli's table with the 100 Top domestic U.S. Fonds here and his BUY signal here:

2011/10/03 decisionmoose.com signal: Buy BTTRX (or TLT, EDV, ZROZ) Long-term Treasury Bonds

On Monday October 3, a new BUY signal was published at http://decisionmoose.com/Moosignal.html :

Buy: BTTRX Long-term Treasury Bonds (or ETF alternatives TLT, EDV, ZROZ)
Sell: Cash (3moT)

More details about the portfolio and the transaction history at:  http://decisionmoose.com/Moosistory.html

Please note the comments of the signal author at decisionmoose.com/Moosignal.html :

"The model switches from cash to Long-term Zero-Coupon Treasury Bonds (BTTRX) on 09/30/2011 @ $83.79. (The ETF alternatives to BTTRX, which is a mutual fund, are TLT, EDV, and ZROZ. Note that a lack of liquidity in some ETFs may exacerbate their volatility. Always familiarize yourself with any investment program and the assets involved before committing to it. Read the FAQs and The Art of the Switch, below.)"

2011/09/30 inoutsignal.blogspot.com: another SELL signal for German DAX

The InOutSignal strategy is a slow but quite efficient technique to time the markets and to avoid too much whipsaw. The strategy triggers a Sell/Buy signal only when two subsequent monthly candles fall below/above the  12-month-SMA (blue-line), respectively (see also the InOutSignals page)

After being long in the German DAX for 2 years and one month, the index has now triggered a new SELL signal on September 30, 2011. Unlike the summer 2010 action, the current developments indicate a real bear market that should respected as such. Capital preservation now has highest priority as it is not foreseeable where the current market turmoils will take us. The severeness of the drop that the DAX experienced during the last two months does not call for an involvement on the short side, as the risk of a snap back would just too high.

As visible in the chart, had you used the InOutSignal 12-month SMA strategy for the DAX during the last 2 years, you would only have come out just even. In any case, the strategy would have protected you (as many times before) from losses and also from the 2010 summer whipsaw. A comparison of the strategy's performance with that of other MA techniques (e.g. on dshort.com which got whipsawed in summer 2010) will be presented shortly here at InOutSignal.

 Signal rules for the 12-month-SMA (blue-line) trading strategy:

                 - Go long on 1st day of a new month when 2 monthly candles
                  have CLOSED above the 12-month-SMA

                 - Go short on 1st day of a new month when 2 monthly candles 
                   have CLOSED below the 12-month-SMA

2011/09/26 decisionmoose.com signal: sell Gold GLD and switch to Cash (3moT)

On Monday September 26, a new signal was published at http://decisionmoose.com/Moosignal.html :

Sell:  Gold GLD

Buy: Cash (3moT)

More details about the portfolio and the transaction history at:  http://decisionmoose.com/Moosistory.html

An evaluation of decisionmoose's GDL investement during the period Monday, May 2 - Friday, September 23, 2011 will follow shortly here at InOutSignal. Also check the evaluation of decicionmoose's last investment in the Russel 2000 IWM here. 

2011/09/07 kimblechartingsolutions.com: harvest "safe havens" Gold GLD, Swiss Franc FXF, and 20 Year Treasury Bonds TLT

Chris Kimble (blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com) uses a nice chart showing that GOLD GLD, the SWISS FRANC FXF and the 20 Year Treasury Bonds TLT and have found long-term key resistance, all at the same time. Check out Chris' blog here:

From Chris' analysis it is clear that owning these "safe havens" plays at the wrong time - NOW - bears as much risk as any other type of investment. Chris concludes: "I remain of the opinion that conservative investors should harvest up against resistance and aggressive investors should "attempt to score on defense" at resistance with an upside stop if resistance doesn't hold."

2011/08/31 dshort.com - S&P 500 slips below 12-month SMA and triggers SELL SIGNAL

One of the slower signals monitored here at InOutSignal is that by dshort.com based on the 12-month moving average (SMA). On August 31, 2011, the S&P 500 had its first monthly close since June 2010 below the 12-month SMA. According to the rules of the dshort.com strategy, one monthly close below the SMA is sufficient to trigger a SELL SIGNAL. This is in contrast to the InOutSignal strategy that requires TWO monthly closes below the SMA. Therefore, the earliest possible sell signal of the InOutSignal strategy would occur at the end of September 2011, if the bear market continues.

2011/08/08 www.thebully.com - domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI) slides into bear market territory

Whereas Ulli Niemann's international Trend Tracking Index (i-TTI) has been in bearish territory for a while (since 16 June 2011), his domestic TTI took a bit longer and triggered its SELL SIGNAL just yesterday 8 August 2011. In his blog www.theETFBully.com Ulli Niemann writes:

"This means, if you track major trends in the market place, we have now officially entered bear market territory, and no equity ETFs/funds should be held. If you followed my recommended sell stop discipline, you sold your equity ETFs/funds some time ago, as their trailing sell stops got triggered, and this now merely is a confirmation of the recent downward trend."

2011/06/24 www.momentumstrategie.de joins the group of recent SELL signals

Ralf Goerke's proprietary International Stock-Climate Index together with its moving average have moved below the critial threshold of 1, hinting that the global market climate has moved from "bull" to "bear". In his column on www.teleboerse.de, Ralf Goerke issues a SELL SIGNAL and recommends to stay out of the markets and wait for more relaxed times. While a this stage no general conclusions can be drawn on the severeness and length of this "bear", investors should be on high alert of the potential risks of this situation.

It should be noted that by now 4 of 7 monitored long-term InOutSignals have issued SELL signals for equities. This indicates that the situation is critical and that any involvement in equities carries a high level of risk! 

2011/06/16 www.theETFbully.com issues new SELL signal for international ETFs / No Load Funds

In response to the current global market weakness, a new SELL signal for international markets was issued today in Ulli Niemann's first class weekly ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet. This signal based on Ulli's proprietary International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) applies to many world markets in general, and specifically to the funds/ETFs listed in his International Funds/ETFs list. It should also be mentioned that Ulli's Domestic Trend Tracking Index is still holding up above the bearish trigger line. I guess, soon it'll be time for the DOMESTIC BEAR to take the stage ...

2011/06/10 Watch out for long-term entry opportunities

The weekly chart of the SPY shows that this week the S&P 500 has dropped below two major long-term support lines, dating back as far as 2009 and 2002. It is now up against heavy overhead resistance. Price action during the next few days will therefore be crucial, not only for the S&P 500 but also for many world markets (see earlier DOMINO posts). So stay on alert for price action in either direction. Good entry points for long-term trades are created at such crucial decision points.

2011/06/06 kimblechartingsolutions.com: the DOMINO game is on - to the DOWN SIDE !

The waiting has an end, the DOMINO game has been kicked off: S&P 500, the CRB and the Shanghai index have broken support and are heading south. Expect more markets to follow suit. In his excellent blog Chris Kimble advises the long-term/401k investor to get out here instead of hoping for a market recovery. To put it in his words ... "The worst case is a lost opportunity, which is much better than lost capital!"

2011/05/30 DOMINO rally still on

In last week's post it was pointed out, that many of the world markets are now on the edge of starting a most likely powerful run in either direction. While everybody was waiting for the kick-off of the DOMINO rally in those markets, they did nothing but stay put last week. The daily chart of the SPY on Friday May 27 shows, that the S&P 500 snapped back into its converging triangle just to show its indecision in form of a spinning top.

Other markets behaved similarly erratic, caught in between support and resistance, as shown nicely in Chris Kimble's blog "Groundhog Day" in the broad markets of last Friday.
              So stay on alert for the kick-off, the DOMINO rally is still on !

2011/05/23 kimblechartingsolutions.com: still waiting for the DOMINO kick-off

Global Markets are at a decision point, a dangerous situation, but also one that can be taken advantage of. The DOMINO game is still on! Keep an eye on Chris Kimble's new post "World on a high wire ...", in which he shows a great chart comparing snap-shots for the markets France, Germany, London, EAFE, Shanghai, and the S&P500. Chris concludes "... if one breaks support, several could !!!", so watch out for a move in either direction.

While it is still very early in the week, note that the S&P 500 actually HAS already dropped below the trendline established in August 2010. Possibly, there could be some very nice plays on the defensive side coming up this week.

decisionmoose.com: evaluation of IWM performance during last investment period

Had you followed decisionmoose.com 's weekly signal during the last investment period
Dec 6, 2010 to May 2, 2011, you would have made a nice profit on the IWM (iShares Russel 2000 Index Fund ETF):

Buy IWM @ ~76 on Dec 6, 2010, Sell IWM @ ~86 on May 2, 2011
          Profit = 10/76  = 13.16 %       in about 5 months, great run ...             

Let's see how GLD (Gold) will be doing, decisionmoose.com 's present pick since May 2, 2011
Buy GLD @ ~151 on May 2, 2011, with GDL @ ~145 on May 18, 2011               

2011/05/17 kimblechartingsolutions.com: S&P 500 gives early warning signal - DOMINO effect ahead?

On May 14, Chris Kimble posted an eluding summary chart of six very important indices, all of them run up against resistance and testing support. He also noted that "..., risks are much higher than normal right now" and asked "Great escape time?" In his follow-up post of 17 May he then suggested that the observed move of the S&P 500 below support should be watched with great care, as "odds are very high that support across the board will break!!!", so his words.

SO BE ON HIGH ALERT FOR A DOMINO EFFECT !

2011/05/05 kimblechartingsolutions.com: watch this important action in U.S. Dollar, Crude, Gold, Silver, Copper, Cotton, Sugar !

On May 4, Chris Kimble's long term chart strongly suggested a major trend change for the U.S. Dollar. In his blog he noticed yesterday's significant action in Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Copper, Cotton, Sugar and other commodities, which should be watched carefully. This might be the beginning of a major market trend change, with some parallels to the situation in 2008, when the U.S. Dollar rallied sharply,

2011/05/02 decisionmoose.com signal: switch from IWM to GLD

After the weekend a new signal was published at http://decisionmoose.com/Moosignal.html :

Sell: US Small-cap Equities IWM 

Buy: Gold GLD

More details about the portfolio and the transaction history at:  http://decisionmoose.com/Moosistory.html