2014/10/31 Trading up the S&P500 rally with Fibonacci-Cluster support (SPX SPY ES)

S&P 500 Fibonacci Clusters with repeated Symmetry Support

Nice rally S&P!!! ... great stuff but how to trade this market efficiently and how to jump on the train, when it's already in full speed? How about using Fibonacci-support-clusters for entry and for controlling risk? The chart shows a double bottom being formed on Oct 16, followed by a break of symmetry on Oct 20 (the symmetry stemming from a Oct 8-9 swing). This was the first indication that the trend had changed. From now on, the S&P followed a simple rhythm pattern, repeating very similar down-swings over and over again. Until today, there were six similar swings that could have been used to enter the market long and to define narrow stop-levels slightly underneath the Fibonacci support clusters (i.e, red closely staggered lines). With very narrow stops you would have been stopped out at points 3 and 6, but by giving the trade a bit more room to breath (and/or by working with options) you could have traded the full rally up with this technique. BTW, then next symmetry support Fib-Cluster is right there from 1990 - 2000, possibly a support zone for the next swing up? 

Schicke Rally S&P!!! ... super Ding, aber wie tradet man das effektiv und wie spring ich drauf auf den fahrenden Zug, wenn der schon so richtig in Schwung is? Der obige Chart zeigt uns, wie ein doppelter Boden am 16. Okt. ausgeformt wurde, gefolgt von einem Bruch der Symmetrie am 20. Okt. (die Symmetrie stammt von einem Swing am 8-9. Okt.). Dieser Bruch gab uns ein erstes Signal, dass der Trend gebrochen war. Von dann an folgte der S&P einem einfachen Rhythmus und wiederholte mehrere Male sehr ähnliche, kurze Abschwünge. Bis heute hatten wir sechs solcher Abschwünge, die jeweils gut für den Einstieg in den Markt benützt hätten werden können und die auch gut-definierte Stopp-Niveaus unter den Fibonacci-Clusters zur Verfügung stellten (siehe rote, eng zusammenliegende Linien). Mit sehr engen Stopps wäre man wohl bei den Punkten 3 und 6 ausgestoppt worden, aber mit ein bisschen mehr "Luft" in den Trades (und/oder mit Optionen als Handelswerkzeug), hätte man mit dieser Technik einen Grossteil der Rally hochtraden können. Übrigens, der nächste Symmetrie Fibo-Cluster bei 1990 - 2000 ist auch schon eingezeichnet und könnte eine mögliche Unterstützungszone für den nächsten Schwung nach oben anbieten? 

2014/01/27 Nice example of a 30-min squeeze trigger in the S&P 500 (ES, SPY, SPX, RUT, IWM)

S&P 500

Just as forecasted in the blog below of January 21, a larger move occurred in the S&P 500 (and most other indexes) after the tipple-squeeze had built up "over pressure" that need to be released. In the earlier blog it was also mentioned that the 30-min squeeze could be used as a trigger in order to decide, in which direction the S&P 500 would fire (long or short). This trigger decision has worked out beautifully in this case and is therefore displayed here as a generic example. 

In the figure above the cursor resides on the Jan 23 candle in the daily chart. The program automatically highlights the time period of Jan 23 in the 4-h and 30-min charts. While the squeezes of all three charts fired short on Jan 23, the 30-min squeeze was the first one to do so. In order to catch the big move, one would use the firing 30-min squeeze as the trigger, and then carefully observe if the other squeezes follow suit in the same direction. The stop loss would be placed fairly tightly in the 30-min chart, preferably above a Fibonacci Cluster or some other resistance level.  

Once triggered, the release of the over pressure typically takes place during 6-8 bars before the squeeze momentum dies down. This also applies to the S&P 500 daily chart, which today is only three days (=bars) into the momentum release triggered on Jan 23. So I expect more movement downwards ...

2014/01/21 S&P 500 and Russel 2000 consolidating with daily-squeeze and 4hour-squeeze patterns - expect a larger move ! (ES, SPY, SPX, RUT, IWM)

 S&P 500

Russel 2000

Two important indices, the S&P 500 and the Russel 2000 are consolidating with daily- and 4-hour squeeze patterns (the Russel even features a 30-min squeeze, too). When squeezed too hard, these "babies" like to escape from their cages, and they tend to do this at an accelerated pace that might last for a few days. While the direction of this move is still unclear, the momentum indicators on the 4-hour charts hint for higher levels of those indices. The 30-min squeeze of the Russel 2000 could be used as a trigger, when it fires long or short. 

2013/10/22 SPX SPY SP500 Fibonacci Cluster upside resistance and targets

 

Fibonacci cluster target 1: 1753-1756
Fibonacci cluster target 2: 1782-1786

2012/11/13 blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com: Dual test of support for the S&P 500 (SPX, SPY)

In his blog, Chris Kimble identifies a current long-term rising wedge pattern in the S&P 500, which resembles the rising wedges that build up during the periods 1998-2000 and 2006-2007, before large market shifts to the downside occurred. The current wedge is also nearing long-term resistance at 1550 that has held since 2000. In conclusion, this is a time when "risk off" is definitively the safer play!

Chris Kimble blogs: "An important "Dual Test of support" is at hand right now for the 500 index. Long investors best hope it holds, because the support line off the 2009 low is very important!  FYI- Support is Support until broken! Twice over the past 12 years, the 500 index broke support lines of these rising wedges at (1) in the chart below and prices fell off quiet a bit."

 Click here for Chris Kimble's full blog article

2012/08/27 decisionmoose.com: BUY US Large Caps (SPY) - SELL Long-term Treasury Bonds (BTTRX, TLT)

For Monday August 27, 2012, a new SWITCH SIGNAL (SELL and BUY new) was published as of Friday's close at http://decisionmoose.com/Moosignal.html :

Sell: BTTRX Long-term Treasury Bonds (or ETF alternatives TLT, EDV, ZROZ)
Buy: US Large Cap Stocks (SPY, SPX)

More details about the portfolio and the transaction history at:  http://decisionmoose.com/Moosistory.html

Please note the comments of the signal author at decisionmoose.com/Moosignal.html :

"The model switches from to US Zero-Coupon Long Treasury bonds (BTTRX) to US Large Cap stocks (SPY) on 08/10/2012 @ $140.84. Always familiarize yourself with any investment program and the assets involved before committing to it. Read the FAQs and The Art of the Switch, below, and get a prospectus online from the fund provider.)"

2012/06/04 InOutSignal SELL SIGNALS - who is first?

InOutSignals: Please take note of these four important longterm SELL Signals that have been issued since 7 May 2012
InOutSignal	Date	Signal Source	Signal	Markets
	12/06/04	momentumstrategie.de	Sell	DAX, S&P 500, SPY World Markets
	12/06/01	kimblechartingsolutions.com	Sell	S&P 500, Broad Markets, World Markets
	12/05/17	theetfbully.com	Sell	International Funds and ETFs
	12/05/07	decisionmoose.com	Sell	S&P 500, SPY

The chart below gives you an idea how these four SELL SIGNALS would have performed for an  S&P 500 investor.
Please use the InOutDates page to see a full list of BUY and SELL signals on InOutSignal.

2012/06/03 Why InOutSignals for S&P500, DOW and DAX turned red on June 1, 2012

This video will give you a quick update on a few important market signals followed here on
InOutSignal.com and it will deliver one clear message:
Watch out, the risk is high at the moment that markets will drop sharply !

2012/05/14 InOutSignal midterm Elliott wave chart for the S&P 500 (SPX, SPY)

Find an updated midterm Elliott wave chart and outlook for the S&P 500 (SPX, SPY) on InOutElliott

2012/05/07 decisionmoose.com: SELL US Large Caps (SPY), BUY Long-term Treasury Bonds (BTTRX, TLT)

On Monday May 7, 2012, a new SWITCH SIGNAL (SELL and BUY new) was published at http://decisionmoose.com/Moosignal.html :

Sell: BTTRX US Large Cap Stocks (SPY)
Buy: BTTRX Long-term Treasury Bonds (or ETF alternatives TLT, EDV, ZROZ)

More details about the portfolio and the transaction history at:  http://decisionmoose.com/Moosistory.html

Please note the comments of the signal author at decisionmoose.com/Moosignal.html :

"The model switches from US Large Cap stocks (SPY) to US Zero-Coupon Long Treasury bonds (BTTRX) on 05/04/2012 @ $84.87. Always familiarize yourself with any investment program and the assets involved before committing to it. Read the FAQs and The Art of the Switch, below, and get a prospectus online from the fund provider.) "

 

2012/04/01 InOutSignal triggers long-term BUY signal for German DAX

On March 30, 2012, the second monthly candle of the German DAX closed above its 12-month SMA. Consequently, on Monday April 2, 2012, the InOutSignal strategy has triggered a new long-term BUY signal for the DAX. An updated chart for the S&P 500 (SPY), which already triggered a BUY on March 1, 2012, can be found here.

2012/03/01 InOutSignal triggers long-term BUY for S&P 500

On February 29, 2012, the second monthly candle of the S&P 500 closed above its 12-month SMA. Consequently, on March 1, 2012 the InOutSignal strategy has triggered a new long-term BUY signal for the S&P 500 (SPX, SPY).

 Signal rules for the 12-month-SMA (blue-line) trading strategy:

                 - Go long on 1st day of a new month when 2 monthly candles
                  have CLOSED above the 12-month-SMA

                 - Go short on 1st day of a new month when 2 monthly candles 
                   have CLOSED below the 12-month-SMA

2012/02/09 Goerke's International Stock-Climate Index triggers BUY SIGNAL

Ralf Goerke's monthly update on his proprietary and long-term tested Global Market-Climate Index can be found on his webpage or on www.teleboerse.de (in German). At the end of January, Goerke's International Stock-Climate Indicator had moved above the 1.0-threshold line, hinting that a BUY SIGNAL might be coming up soon. Gorke's BUY SIGNAL was then triggered on February 9, 2012, the day when it was also published in his subscription-only e-letter. On February 14, 2012 his buy signal was first made public on www.DAF.fm

SIGNAL German DAX and international markets:          BUY SIGNAL   -  since 9 February 2012

2012/01/27 Goerke's International Stock-Climate Index hints BUY SIGNAL is ante portas

Ralf Goerke's monthly update on his proprietary and long-term tested International Stock-Climate Index can be found on his webpage or on www.teleboerse.de (in German). At the end of January, Goerke's International Stock-Climate Indicator has moved above the 1.0-line, hinting that a BUY SIGNAL might be coming up soon (or as Goerke puts it: buy signal ante portas). Gorke's BUY SIGNAL will be triggered when both, the indicator and its moving average cross the threshold value of 1.0. This might happen as early as in the second or third week of February 2012.

SIGNAL international markets:                         BUY SIGNAL around the corner  — ante portas

Goerke's International Stock-Climate Indicator (3-years)

2012/02/01 dshort.com triggers BUY SIGNAL for the S&P 500

Among many other signals, dshort.com monitors a simple but effective in-out-strategy based on the FIRST monthly close of the S&P 500 above or below its 12-month moving average (SMA). On January 31, 2012, the S&P 500 had its first monthly close above the 12-month SMA so that a BUY SIGNAL was triggered today on February 1, 2012. This BUY SIGNAL comes after five monthly closes below the 12-monthly SMA, since August 2011.

dshort.com's new BUY SIGNAL

2011/10/27 www.theetfbully.com issues new BUY SIGNAL for domestic equity funds (U.S.)

On Monday October 27, 2011 a new BUY signal was published at www.theetfbully.com:

Buy:  Domestic U.S. Equity Funds

Please read ALL the important comments of the signal author, Ulli the ETF BULLY at http://www.theetfbully.com/. Specifically, Ulli notes in his 10/27/2011 StatSheet:

"The domestic TTI broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities is in effect."

You will find investment opportunities in Ulli's table with the 100 Top domestic U.S. Fonds here and his BUY signal here:

2011/08/31 dshort.com - S&P 500 slips below 12-month SMA and triggers SELL SIGNAL

One of the slower signals monitored here at InOutSignal is that by dshort.com based on the 12-month moving average (SMA). On August 31, 2011, the S&P 500 had its first monthly close since June 2010 below the 12-month SMA. According to the rules of the dshort.com strategy, one monthly close below the SMA is sufficient to trigger a SELL SIGNAL. This is in contrast to the InOutSignal strategy that requires TWO monthly closes below the SMA. Therefore, the earliest possible sell signal of the InOutSignal strategy would occur at the end of September 2011, if the bear market continues.

2011/08/08 www.thebully.com - domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI) slides into bear market territory

Whereas Ulli Niemann's international Trend Tracking Index (i-TTI) has been in bearish territory for a while (since 16 June 2011), his domestic TTI took a bit longer and triggered its SELL SIGNAL just yesterday 8 August 2011. In his blog www.theETFBully.com Ulli Niemann writes:

"This means, if you track major trends in the market place, we have now officially entered bear market territory, and no equity ETFs/funds should be held. If you followed my recommended sell stop discipline, you sold your equity ETFs/funds some time ago, as their trailing sell stops got triggered, and this now merely is a confirmation of the recent downward trend."

2011/06/10 Watch out for long-term entry opportunities

The weekly chart of the SPY shows that this week the S&P 500 has dropped below two major long-term support lines, dating back as far as 2009 and 2002. It is now up against heavy overhead resistance. Price action during the next few days will therefore be crucial, not only for the S&P 500 but also for many world markets (see earlier DOMINO posts). So stay on alert for price action in either direction. Good entry points for long-term trades are created at such crucial decision points.

2011/06/06 kimblechartingsolutions.com: the DOMINO game is on - to the DOWN SIDE !

The waiting has an end, the DOMINO game has been kicked off: S&P 500, the CRB and the Shanghai index have broken support and are heading south. Expect more markets to follow suit. In his excellent blog Chris Kimble advises the long-term/401k investor to get out here instead of hoping for a market recovery. To put it in his words ... "The worst case is a lost opportunity, which is much better than lost capital!"