2014/10/30 DAX Fibonacci symmetry resistance cluster in 30 min Chart

DAX Fibonacci Cluster & Symmetry Resistance (30 min)

2014/10/28 DAX Fibonacci symmetry resistance cluster in 30 min Chart

DAX Fibonacci Cluster & Symmetry Resistance (30 min)

2014/10/02 S&P500 Fibonacci symmetry support cluster (SPX SPY ES)

S&P 500 Fibonacci Cluster & Symmetry Support

While market action was fierce, the S&P 500 must first prove whether it really means it. At the moment, we are still in a perfectly fine correction that has not exceeded similar down moves we've observed in the recent past. The Fibonacci Cluster in the chart needs to hold should this be another "normal" swing. Note however that the Squeeze has fired south and hints that more days with selling pressure might be ahead of us.

2014/09/05 AZO Butterfly into Sep 22 earnings (BMO) with 550 pinning potential

AZU Butterfly 

Speculative Long Trade Setup into earnings with Fibonacci Support Cluster in the 1h Chart: 

- could push up into earnings on Monday, Sep 22 (BMO)
- pinning potential at the round number of 550, which is a common Fibonacci target in both, the 1h and daily charts

My Trade Strategy is to buy a 550 butterfly which expires on Friday Sep 19, the last trading day before the Monday Sep 22 earnings announcement: BUY BUTTERFLY AZO SEP14 +540/ -2*550/ +560 CALL @2.20. Idealy AZO would pin at 550 where the max profit of 1550/contract would be realized. The Risk/Reward of the trade is a very favorable 440/1550. 

2014/08/29 UNG - Natural Gas Midterm Setup with Fibonacci Targets & Squeeze Support

UNG setup

Long Trade Setup for UNG (Natural Gas ETF) with Fibonacci Support/Resistance Clusters and midterm targets from the daily Chart:

- solid Fibonacci support cluster at 21

- seasonally expecting move up until the end of the year

- geo-political situation might help 

- the daily Squeeze just fired long yesterday, so we expect an average of 8-10 bars of daily push power

- breakout to a new swing high yesterday indicates that a new long trend could be established
- Fibonacci-target 1: 23
- Fibonacci-target 2 (and hurdle on the way up): 23.4-23.7

My Trade Strategy is to sell an at-the-money Put Credit Spread :  Sell GTC Jan15 +21/-23 ATM PCS at $1.10 or better (currently $1.13).

The idea is to have an "edge" from the analysis and to implement the trade with a neutral 1:1 risk/reward, after having paid commissions. If the spread is sold at $1.10, the max risk will be $0.90 + commissions.

If UNG expires in January above $23 you'll make +100% profit, if it expires below $21 your take the full loss of -100% (this works like a risk-balanced binary option, that's why I call it 100binOpts). In effect, you need only a $1 move up to make full profit on the trade. If you end up somewhere in between the $21-23 range you'll experience a partial profit or loss. Of course, partial profits/losses can also be taken at any time earlier than Jan 15.

2014/08/26 TSLA Squeeze Setup with Fibonacci Targets

TSLA setup

Long Trade Setup with Fibonacci Support/Resistance Clusters and midterm and longterm targets from the daily and weekly Charts:

- the weekly Squeeze has already fired long and a few more bars of push momentum in reserve
- the 4 hour Squeeze is getting ready fire long (with overnight data it already fired long)
- Fibonacci-support-cluster at 253-250
- Fibonacci-targets on the daily chart: 271.4 and 276.9
- Fibonacci-targets on the weekly chart: 288.9 and 319.3

2014/08/09 FSLR Squeeze Setup with Fibonacci Clusters

FSLR setup

Long Trade Setup with Fibonacci Support/Resistance Clusters and Squeeze push engine:

- above all EMAs 21/50/200 (supercalifragilistic setup)
- great push up from EMA 200 after earnings on good volume
- daily squeeze triggered long (2 bars) - weekly squeeze in place
- Fibonacci-support-cluster 60-55
- Fibonacci-target 80
- Fibonacci-hurdle 70

The first move up has taken FSLR up to the Fib-hurdle around 70. A pullback in the 65 zone would be nice and for me a preferred entry zone. If FSLR manages to get through the 70 zone, the move has a high probability to get to 80.

My Trade Strategy is to sell an at-the-money Put Credit Spread (my GTC limit order being already in the market):  Sell Sep14 62.5/67.5 ATM PCS at $2.55 GTC (currently $2.03)

=> if the FSLR expires above $67.5 you make +100% profit, if it expires below $62.5 your take the full loss of -100% (works like a binary option); if you end up in between the $62.5 - $67.5 zone you experience partial profit/loss

Should FSLR pull back to 65 my spread would be filled automatically at $2.55, which is a tiny bit more than 1/2 the spread (the extra 5 cents is to cover commissions). The basic idea is to risk $2.5 to make $2.5.  You will also make full profit if the stock moves up only slightly, no huge rally move needed :) 

Note: This is just a trading example for educational purpose only and should not be taken as trading advice. Trading Options carries substantial risk. An ATM credit spread generally risks the full width of the spread minus the credit received. This means that you need to employ your own risk and money management strategies. 

2014/07/08 DAX hindsight Squeeze trading

DAX - FDAX

While I am not a fan of hindsight trading posts, I thought it might be of value for some of you to have a look at four DAX Squeeze setups in the 30 min time frame that have fired in the last six days. For each one of those setups the Squeeze_Momentum and MACD(13,55,8) correctly indicated the direction in which the Squeeze would fire, i.e. grey arrows pointing three times upwards and yesterday downwards. In all four cases a nice dynamic movement followed the Squeeze phase, good for long options traders (and others too ;) ) It's a nice set of indicators that has worked well for me - independently of the time frame used. 

Obwohl ich kein grosser Fan davon bin, Charts im nachhinein auf ihre Profitabilität zu checken, dachte ich, es könnte nicht schaden mal einen Blick auf vier DAX Squeeze-Setups im 30 min Zeitrahmen zu werfen, die in letzten sechs Tagen losgefeuert haben. Für jedes der Setups wurde vom Squeeze_Momentum und MACD (13,55,8) korrekt angezeigt, in welche Richtung das Squeeze losfeuern würde (siehe graue Pfeile dreimal nach oben und gestern nach unten). In allen vier Fällen folgte eine schöne dynamische Bewegung nach der Squeeze-Phase, ideal für long-Options Trades (und natürlich auch für alle anderen Trades;)) Dieses Indikatoren-Set liefert mir verlässlich gute setups, völlig unabhängig von der Zeiteinheit des verwendeten Charts. 

Aunque no soy un fan de analisar un chart retrospectivamente, pensé que podría ser de valor para algunos de ustedes echar un vistazo a cuatro setups Squeeze del DAX en el marco de tiempo de 30 minutos que han disparado en los últimos seis días. Para cada una de esas setups el Squeeze_Momentum y MACD (13,55,8) indicaron correctamente la dirección en la cual el Squeeze dispararía, es decir, flechas grises que señalan tres veces hacia arriba y una vez hacia abajo ayer. En los cuatro casos, un buen movimiento dinámico siguió a la fase de Squeeze, bueno para negocios de opciones "long" (y otros negocios también ;)) Es un buen conjunto de indicadores que ha funcionado bien para mí -  independendente del período de tiempo utilizado.

Für alle die mehr wissen wollen, hier nochmal das Video zum Squeeze Indikator

2014/07/04 Muenchner Rueckversicherungs AG - daily Squeeze & Fibonacci Targets

Muenchner Rueckversicherungs AG

Muenchner Rueckversicherungs AG has a lot of push power from Squeezes in the weekly/daily charts. It just broke above the important 163.5 resistance level with more upside potential. 

Fibonacci support and resistance levels:

Target 1 (30min - 161.8%): 165

Target 2 (daily - 100%): 170

Target 3 (daily - 127.2%): 175

Support Clusters(daily): 

Support 1: 159-156.8

Support 2: 151.8 - 150..9

Support 3: 147.6 - 145.8

2014/07/02 DAX daily and 30min Squeezes with Fibonacci targets

DAX - FDAX

DAX daily/30 min Squeezes and upside Fibonacci Cluster resistance:

The DAX is building up Squeeze push power in the daily and 30 min charts. Should the Squeezes fire long, would the next Fibonacci Cluster targets be at 10134 and 10330.

2014/06/17 DAX Fibonacci Clusters for the 4h and 30min charts

DAX - FDAX

DAX Support and Resistance Fibonacci Clusters:

 after the Squeeze breakout there might be more more upside potential if a pull-back holds at the 9900 - 9867 Cluster

2014/06/16 DAX Fibonacci Clusters for the 4h and 30min charts

DAX - FDAX

DAX Support and Resistance: Fibonacci Clusters for the 4h and 30min charts