2015/02/04 Crude in bull mode, waiting for pullback to Fibonacci-Cluster support @50 (CL, USO)

Crude (CL, USO) Fibonacci-Clusters with possible pullback to 50/48

Fibonacci-Cluster Analysis for Crude (CL, USO) :
On the daily chart, most symmetries were broken by the recent powerful rise of Crude - that's a bullish sign! Now we are at a resistance cluster 53-57.6, which would call for a pullback into the support areas 50 and 48 (on the 30min chart ). These would be the areas for a re-entry in the long direction. A turn-around at 50 would provide a 127% Fibo target at 55. An added extra: the daily chart shows a 4-dot squeeze that seems to  fire long. This might give the movement a nice boost up :)

My personal ideas for possible trade implementation with options
(provided, of course , we get the pullback to 50 and a resumption of the trend !) :

• 50/55 call debit spread ( with target = 55)
• At- the-money 49/51 put credit spread ( also called 100BinOpts , 1 risk / make 1 )
• Delta70 options (aggressive, but should the squeeze fire, you'll get the highest profit potential)

Fibonacci-Cluster Analyse für Crude (CL, USO):
Im Tageschart wurden durch den kürzlichen flotten Anstieg die meisten Symmetrien nach oben gebrochen - das ist ein bullisches Zeichen! Jetzt befinden wir uns an einem Widerstands-Cluster 53-57.6, der einen Pullback bis zu den Unterstützungsbereichen bei 50 bzw. 48 möglich macht (30min Chart). Dort bietet sich dann der Wiedereinstieg in die Long-Richtung an. Bei einem Dreher um 50 wäre das 127% Fibo-Ziel dann um die 55. Noch ein Extra: der Tageschart weißt einen 4-Punkt Squeeze auf, der nach oben zu feuern scheint.  Hierdurch könnte es einen schönen Schub nach oben  geben.

Meine persönlichen Ideen zur möglichen Umsetzung mit Optionen
(vorausgesetzt natürlich, wir bekommen den Pullback zu 50 und eine Wiederaufnahme des Trends!):

• 50/55 Call-Debit Spread (mit Target = 55)
• At-the-money 49/51 Put-Credit Spread (auch 100BinOpts genannt, Risiko 1/Potential 1)
• Delta70 Optionen (aggressiv, aber wenn der Squeeze feuert, dann höchstes Gewinnpotential)

2014/10/31 Trading up the S&P500 rally with Fibonacci-Cluster support (SPX SPY ES)

S&P 500 Fibonacci Clusters with repeated Symmetry Support

Nice rally S&P!!! ... great stuff but how to trade this market efficiently and how to jump on the train, when it's already in full speed? How about using Fibonacci-support-clusters for entry and for controlling risk? The chart shows a double bottom being formed on Oct 16, followed by a break of symmetry on Oct 20 (the symmetry stemming from a Oct 8-9 swing). This was the first indication that the trend had changed. From now on, the S&P followed a simple rhythm pattern, repeating very similar down-swings over and over again. Until today, there were six similar swings that could have been used to enter the market long and to define narrow stop-levels slightly underneath the Fibonacci support clusters (i.e, red closely staggered lines). With very narrow stops you would have been stopped out at points 3 and 6, but by giving the trade a bit more room to breath (and/or by working with options) you could have traded the full rally up with this technique. BTW, then next symmetry support Fib-Cluster is right there from 1990 - 2000, possibly a support zone for the next swing up? 

Schicke Rally S&P!!! ... super Ding, aber wie tradet man das effektiv und wie spring ich drauf auf den fahrenden Zug, wenn der schon so richtig in Schwung is? Der obige Chart zeigt uns, wie ein doppelter Boden am 16. Okt. ausgeformt wurde, gefolgt von einem Bruch der Symmetrie am 20. Okt. (die Symmetrie stammt von einem Swing am 8-9. Okt.). Dieser Bruch gab uns ein erstes Signal, dass der Trend gebrochen war. Von dann an folgte der S&P einem einfachen Rhythmus und wiederholte mehrere Male sehr ähnliche, kurze Abschwünge. Bis heute hatten wir sechs solcher Abschwünge, die jeweils gut für den Einstieg in den Markt benützt hätten werden können und die auch gut-definierte Stopp-Niveaus unter den Fibonacci-Clusters zur Verfügung stellten (siehe rote, eng zusammenliegende Linien). Mit sehr engen Stopps wäre man wohl bei den Punkten 3 und 6 ausgestoppt worden, aber mit ein bisschen mehr "Luft" in den Trades (und/oder mit Optionen als Handelswerkzeug), hätte man mit dieser Technik einen Grossteil der Rally hochtraden können. Übrigens, der nächste Symmetrie Fibo-Cluster bei 1990 - 2000 ist auch schon eingezeichnet und könnte eine mögliche Unterstützungszone für den nächsten Schwung nach oben anbieten? 

2014/10/30 DAX Fibonacci symmetry resistance cluster in 30 min Chart

DAX Fibonacci Cluster & Symmetry Resistance (30 min)

2014/10/28 DAX Fibonacci symmetry resistance cluster in 30 min Chart

DAX Fibonacci Cluster & Symmetry Resistance (30 min)

2014/10/02 S&P500 Fibonacci symmetry support cluster (SPX SPY ES)

S&P 500 Fibonacci Cluster & Symmetry Support

While market action was fierce, the S&P 500 must first prove whether it really means it. At the moment, we are still in a perfectly fine correction that has not exceeded similar down moves we've observed in the recent past. The Fibonacci Cluster in the chart needs to hold should this be another "normal" swing. Note however that the Squeeze has fired south and hints that more days with selling pressure might be ahead of us.

2014/09/05 AZO Butterfly into Sep 22 earnings (BMO) with 550 pinning potential

AZU Butterfly 

Speculative Long Trade Setup into earnings with Fibonacci Support Cluster in the 1h Chart: 

- could push up into earnings on Monday, Sep 22 (BMO)
- pinning potential at the round number of 550, which is a common Fibonacci target in both, the 1h and daily charts

My Trade Strategy is to buy a 550 butterfly which expires on Friday Sep 19, the last trading day before the Monday Sep 22 earnings announcement: BUY BUTTERFLY AZO SEP14 +540/ -2*550/ +560 CALL @2.20. Idealy AZO would pin at 550 where the max profit of 1550/contract would be realized. The Risk/Reward of the trade is a very favorable 440/1550. 

2014/08/29 UNG - Natural Gas Midterm Setup with Fibonacci Targets & Squeeze Support

UNG setup

Long Trade Setup for UNG (Natural Gas ETF) with Fibonacci Support/Resistance Clusters and midterm targets from the daily Chart:

- solid Fibonacci support cluster at 21

- seasonally expecting move up until the end of the year

- geo-political situation might help 

- the daily Squeeze just fired long yesterday, so we expect an average of 8-10 bars of daily push power

- breakout to a new swing high yesterday indicates that a new long trend could be established
- Fibonacci-target 1: 23
- Fibonacci-target 2 (and hurdle on the way up): 23.4-23.7

My Trade Strategy is to sell an at-the-money Put Credit Spread :  Sell GTC Jan15 +21/-23 ATM PCS at $1.10 or better (currently $1.13).

The idea is to have an "edge" from the analysis and to implement the trade with a neutral 1:1 risk/reward, after having paid commissions. If the spread is sold at $1.10, the max risk will be $0.90 + commissions.

If UNG expires in January above $23 you'll make +100% profit, if it expires below $21 your take the full loss of -100% (this works like a risk-balanced binary option, that's why I call it 100binOpts). In effect, you need only a $1 move up to make full profit on the trade. If you end up somewhere in between the $21-23 range you'll experience a partial profit or loss. Of course, partial profits/losses can also be taken at any time earlier than Jan 15.

2014/08/26 TSLA Squeeze Setup with Fibonacci Targets

TSLA setup

Long Trade Setup with Fibonacci Support/Resistance Clusters and midterm and longterm targets from the daily and weekly Charts:

- the weekly Squeeze has already fired long and a few more bars of push momentum in reserve
- the 4 hour Squeeze is getting ready fire long (with overnight data it already fired long)
- Fibonacci-support-cluster at 253-250
- Fibonacci-targets on the daily chart: 271.4 and 276.9
- Fibonacci-targets on the weekly chart: 288.9 and 319.3

2014/08/09 FSLR Squeeze Setup with Fibonacci Clusters

FSLR setup

Long Trade Setup with Fibonacci Support/Resistance Clusters and Squeeze push engine:

- above all EMAs 21/50/200 (supercalifragilistic setup)
- great push up from EMA 200 after earnings on good volume
- daily squeeze triggered long (2 bars) - weekly squeeze in place
- Fibonacci-support-cluster 60-55
- Fibonacci-target 80
- Fibonacci-hurdle 70

The first move up has taken FSLR up to the Fib-hurdle around 70. A pullback in the 65 zone would be nice and for me a preferred entry zone. If FSLR manages to get through the 70 zone, the move has a high probability to get to 80.

My Trade Strategy is to sell an at-the-money Put Credit Spread (my GTC limit order being already in the market):  Sell Sep14 62.5/67.5 ATM PCS at $2.55 GTC (currently $2.03)

=> if the FSLR expires above $67.5 you make +100% profit, if it expires below $62.5 your take the full loss of -100% (works like a binary option); if you end up in between the $62.5 - $67.5 zone you experience partial profit/loss

Should FSLR pull back to 65 my spread would be filled automatically at $2.55, which is a tiny bit more than 1/2 the spread (the extra 5 cents is to cover commissions). The basic idea is to risk $2.5 to make $2.5.  You will also make full profit if the stock moves up only slightly, no huge rally move needed :) 

Note: This is just a trading example for educational purpose only and should not be taken as trading advice. Trading Options carries substantial risk. An ATM credit spread generally risks the full width of the spread minus the credit received. This means that you need to employ your own risk and money management strategies. 

2014/07/08 DAX hindsight Squeeze trading

DAX - FDAX

While I am not a fan of hindsight trading posts, I thought it might be of value for some of you to have a look at four DAX Squeeze setups in the 30 min time frame that have fired in the last six days. For each one of those setups the Squeeze_Momentum and MACD(13,55,8) correctly indicated the direction in which the Squeeze would fire, i.e. grey arrows pointing three times upwards and yesterday downwards. In all four cases a nice dynamic movement followed the Squeeze phase, good for long options traders (and others too ;) ) It's a nice set of indicators that has worked well for me - independently of the time frame used. 

Obwohl ich kein grosser Fan davon bin, Charts im nachhinein auf ihre Profitabilität zu checken, dachte ich, es könnte nicht schaden mal einen Blick auf vier DAX Squeeze-Setups im 30 min Zeitrahmen zu werfen, die in letzten sechs Tagen losgefeuert haben. Für jedes der Setups wurde vom Squeeze_Momentum und MACD (13,55,8) korrekt angezeigt, in welche Richtung das Squeeze losfeuern würde (siehe graue Pfeile dreimal nach oben und gestern nach unten). In allen vier Fällen folgte eine schöne dynamische Bewegung nach der Squeeze-Phase, ideal für long-Options Trades (und natürlich auch für alle anderen Trades;)) Dieses Indikatoren-Set liefert mir verlässlich gute setups, völlig unabhängig von der Zeiteinheit des verwendeten Charts. 

Aunque no soy un fan de analisar un chart retrospectivamente, pensé que podría ser de valor para algunos de ustedes echar un vistazo a cuatro setups Squeeze del DAX en el marco de tiempo de 30 minutos que han disparado en los últimos seis días. Para cada una de esas setups el Squeeze_Momentum y MACD (13,55,8) indicaron correctamente la dirección en la cual el Squeeze dispararía, es decir, flechas grises que señalan tres veces hacia arriba y una vez hacia abajo ayer. En los cuatro casos, un buen movimiento dinámico siguió a la fase de Squeeze, bueno para negocios de opciones "long" (y otros negocios también ;)) Es un buen conjunto de indicadores que ha funcionado bien para mí -  independendente del período de tiempo utilizado.

Für alle die mehr wissen wollen, hier nochmal das Video zum Squeeze Indikator

2014/07/04 Muenchner Rueckversicherungs AG - daily Squeeze & Fibonacci Targets

Muenchner Rueckversicherungs AG

Muenchner Rueckversicherungs AG has a lot of push power from Squeezes in the weekly/daily charts. It just broke above the important 163.5 resistance level with more upside potential. 

Fibonacci support and resistance levels:

Target 1 (30min - 161.8%): 165

Target 2 (daily - 100%): 170

Target 3 (daily - 127.2%): 175

Support Clusters(daily): 

Support 1: 159-156.8

Support 2: 151.8 - 150..9

Support 3: 147.6 - 145.8

2014/07/02 DAX daily and 30min Squeezes with Fibonacci targets

DAX - FDAX

DAX daily/30 min Squeezes and upside Fibonacci Cluster resistance:

The DAX is building up Squeeze push power in the daily and 30 min charts. Should the Squeezes fire long, would the next Fibonacci Cluster targets be at 10134 and 10330.